Toxic differential is a combination of three different differential statistics:
1) Turnover differential, which is the difference between the total number of takeaways (opponent turnovers) less the total number of giveaways (team turnovers).
2) Passing Big Play differential, which is the difference between the total number of passing plays of 25+ yards by the team less the total number of passing plays of 25+ yards the team gave up.
3) Rushing Big Play differential, which is the difference between the total number of rushing plays of 10+ yards by the team less the total number of rushing plays of 10+ yards the team gave up.
Toxic Differential - 2016 Season | Weekly Toxic Differential Stats
|Rank||Team||Turnover Differential||Big Play Differential||Toxic Differential|
|2||New England Patriots||10||25||35|
|7||Green Bay Packers||7||10||17|
|13||Kansas City Chiefs||15||-10||5|
|14||New Orleans Saints||-2||6||4|
|18||San Diego Chargers||-6||1||-5|
|20||New York Giants||-5||-1||-6|
|27||San Francisco 49ers||-3||-17||-20|
|29||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1||-27||-26|
|31||Los Angeles Rams||-10||-17||-27|
|32||New York Jets||-23||-11||-34|
More about Toxic Differential
The statistic was created by Super Bowl winning coach Brian Billick while he was offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings. He's quoted as saying "It’s not merely good enough to avoid turning the ball over; you need to generate big offensive plays as well."
The ideal situation is having a double positive, in other words a team is winning the turnover differential AND the explosive play differential. Over the last 15+ seasons, a majority of teams that have won the Super Bowl finished the regular season in the Top 10 for Toxic Differential.